The time-varying dynamics of systematic fiscal policy

Abstract

ABSTRACT Against the background of deepening public finance reforms in China, this paper applies the time-varying parameter techniques to investigate the underlying structural variation in the systematic part of fiscal policy. Although the degree of activism of systematic fiscal policy to inflation is estimated to remain in a mostly stable regime, the findings reveal a trend towards a less systematic and predictable policy behaviour to output stabilization over the past few years. The dynamic relationship implies that the counter-cyclical policy capacity has been attenuated, and systematic fiscal policy becomes less effective at restraining uncertainties about the functioning of the economy.