The three and six-substitution rules in football: A preliminary comparative analysis in quantitative replacing, game statistics, win rate and winning probability

Carlos Fernando Braz Ribeiro,Leonardo Dos Santos Siqueira,Cristiano Diniz Da Silva,Dalton Pinheiro Pinto

doi:10.1590/s1980-6574202000020188

Carlos Fernando Braz Ribeiro, Leonardo Dos Santos Siqueira + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1980-6574202000020188

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Abstract

Abstract Aims: The present study aimed to analyze the effects of the 3- and 6-substitution rule and qualification round on substitution pattern, game statistics, win rate, and winning probability in Brazil's largest U-20 football tournament. Methods: We analyzed 1,339 matches from the Sao Paulo Junior Football Cup implementing a before-after design considering 6 years (three seasons for 3-subs and three for 6-subs). Results: Approximately 31% of teams used the total number of replacements of 6-subs with the same substitution pattern between rounds. The win rate for both substitution rules was approximately 79% (OR = 3.10, 95%CI [2.18, 4.51]) with a small reduced magnitude (approximately 5%) in 6-subs knockout games. Logistic regression analysis showed that the 6-subs regulation tournament predicted a reduced probability (-12%) of a match ending with a win in the knockout round. There were 6-subs knockout effects (p < 0.05) on game statistics with “negligible” effect size (ES) on “effective playing time” (+1 min; ES = 0.15); decreased “goal scoring” (-0.3;ES = 0.09) and “red cards” per match (-0.1; ES = 0.06). An ordered probit model and partial effects showed that including a replacement unit on a team increased the winning probability by 8% in the group stage, and reduced the chance (-4%) for the opponents trying to do the same in the knockout stage. Conclusion: Overall, 6-subs caused minor effects on the game statistics, win rate, and winning probability. Understanding substitution strategies and motivation, individual and collective performance effects, and whether there will be changes in the game profile will become relevant research issues when a greater number of substitutions rules are universally instituted.

Highlights

Unlike other sports, coaches in football have limited opportunities to directly impact the game's progress
The quantitative replacing is Substitution-regulation tournaments
We evaluated the relationship between the number of subs and match statistics indicators to check the robustness of our findings (Table 4)

Summary

Introduction

Coaches in football have limited opportunities to directly impact the game's progress. There are no timeouts and only one longer guaranteed stoppage in the game occurs at halftime in adult professional matchplay competition. For this reason and the inherent difficulty in transferring information during gameplay, coaches' interventions, for rationally exploiting and timing their allowed substitutions during the game, are critical to gain a competitive advantage when trying a more cohesive offensive/defensive strategy[1] or to alleviate in-game and game-to-game fatigue, which is an important aspect during a season[2,3,4]. The Fédération International of Football Association (FIFA) game rules, according to Rule 3, currently allow up to three substitutions in most competition regulations involving adult professionals during an official match and do not allow re-entry of the substituted player.

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