The Test of the Availability Hypothesis Reveals the Needs for Ex-Situ Conservation for Some Protected Area-Restricted Species

Abstract

In ethnobotany, the availability hypothesis predicts that plants that are abundant and easily accessible to people are more likely to be medicinal than not. By protecting species diversity away from people, protected areas (PAs) may act as a limiting factor to a sustainable development of traditional knowledge concerning medicinal uses, and in so doing, PAs provide opportunity to prioritize ex-situ conservation for species that are PAs-restricted. In this scenario, ex-situ conservation becomes the only chance for people to develop traditional knowledge on plants which otherwise wouldn’t be documented as traditionally useful to people. To test these expectations, we used data collected for almost 20 years of fieldworks on plant medicinal uses and their abundance inside and outside the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We fitted four different scenarios of structural equation models (SEMs) to the data collected. We found that total plant abundance (abundance outside + inside KNP) is a significant positive predictor of medicinal status, and so is abundance outside KNP, thus supporting the availability hypothesis. However, not only is abundance inside KNP not a direct significant correlate of medicinal status, but the relationship between both is also negative. The lack of predictive power of inside-abundance is most likely because some species are exclusively found inside KNP and local communities do not have access to them. It also shows that the positive and direct correlation of total abundance with medicinal status is driven by outside-abundance. In addition, the negative relationships between inside abundance and medicinal status implies that abundant plants inside KNP tend to be not-medicinal, further providing evidence that PAs hinder the development of medicinal knowledge. Furthermore, when inside and outside abundance were included simultaneously in one metamodel as two distinct variables, inside abundance was never a direct significant predictor of medicinal status, but it was so, via an indirect path mediated by outside abundance. This suggests that outside abundance is the key variable driving the development of medicinal plant knowledge. Cumulatively, our findings suggest that anything that favors the establishment of PA-restricted plants outside the naturally realized niches of these plants (ex-situ conservation), such as in botanical gardens, private gardens, in agroforestry systems, etc., is to be promoted so that people-plant interactions may continue for the benefits of ethnobotanical knowledge development.