RETRACTED: The Temporal-Spatial Distribution and Information-Diffusion-Based Risk Assessment of Forest Fires in China

Shu Wu

doi:10.3390/su132413859

Abstract

As forest fires are becoming a recurrent and severe issue in China, their temporal-spatial information and risk assessment are crucial for forest fire prevention and reduction. Based on provincial-level forest fire data during 1998–2017, this study adopts principal component analysis, clustering analysis, and the information diffusion theory to estimate the temporal-spatial distribution and risk of forest fires in China. Viewed from temporality, China’s forest fires reveal a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. Viewed from spatiality, provinces characterized by high population density and high coverage density are seriously affected, while eastern coastal provinces with strong fire management capabilities or western provinces with a low forest coverage rate are slightly affected. Through the principal component analysis, Hunan (1.33), Guizhou (0.74), Guangxi (0.51), Heilongjiang (0.48), and Zhejiang (0.46) are found to rank in the top five for the severity of forest fires. Further, Hunan (1089), Guizhou (659), and Guanxi (416) are the top three in the expected number of general forest fires, Fujian (4.70), Inner Mongolia (4.60), and Heilongjiang (3.73) are the top three in the expected number of large forest fires, and Heilongjiang (59,290), Inner Mongolia (20,665), and Hunan (5816) are the top three in the expected area of the burnt forest.

Highlights

Sustainability 2021, 13, 13859. https://Owing to intensifying human activities and climate change, uncontainable and destructive forest fires have become expected annual global events
While normal forest disturbances by controllable fires are an integral component of forest ecosystems, catastrophic forest fires can damage the environmental functions of forest ecosystems, decreasing biodiversity and livelihoods [3]
The incidence of forest fires in these provinces is high, and the associated consequences are serious. These provinces are in the south of China, which implies that the risk of forest fires in southern China is higher than in northern China

Summary

Introduction

Sustainability 2021, 13, 13859. https://Owing to intensifying human activities and climate change, uncontainable and destructive forest fires have become expected annual global events. Owing to intensifying human activities and climate change, uncontainable and destructive forest fires have become expected annual global events. During 2003–2012, around million hectares of forest land burned annually, accounting for 1.7% of global forest land [1]. In 2015, approximately 98 million hectares suffered fires [2]. While normal forest disturbances by controllable fires are an integral component of forest ecosystems, catastrophic forest fires can damage the environmental functions of forest ecosystems, decreasing biodiversity and livelihoods [3]. Catastrophic forest fires caused by El Nino in and 1998 destroyed 80% of staple crops in a state of Brazil [4]. The costs of forest fire management and forest-fire-related losses impose a heavy economic burden

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Conclusion