The temporal sequence between gentrification and cycling infrastructure expansions in Montreal, Canada

Abstract

Increases in cycling infrastructure might be linked to gentrification. However, there is little empirical evidence investigating the existence and directionality of this possible relationship. This study examined the temporal sequence involved in the relation between gentrification and increases in the cycling infrastructure in Montreal, Canada. We analyzed changes in cycling infrastructure between 2006, 2011, and 2016, considering cyclist-only paths, multi-use paths, and on-street bike lanes. The Ding measure was used to identify gentrified census tracts (CTs) using census data. We implemented logistic regression models with and without geographically weighted regression specification at the CT level to test three scenarios; whether an increase in cycling infrastructure (2006–2011) was associated with subsequent gentrification (2011–2016); whether gentrification (2006–2011) was associated with subsequent increase in cycling infrastructure (2011–2016); or if these phenomena happened simultaneously (2011–2016). Increase in cycling infrastructure was not linked to subsequent gentrification, nor did these two phenomena happen simultaneously. However, gentrified CTs had a 44% greater chance of a subsequent increase in cycling infrastructure, with varying strengths of associations across the study area. When planning increases in cycling infrastructure, it is crucial to take an equity-based approach that underlying sociodemographic dynamics of urban CTs. To achieve this, cities need to engage in broad upstream community engagement, ensuring the inclusion of a diverse range of voices in the decision-making process.