Abstract
BackgroundThe association between malaria and meteorological factors is complex due to the lagged and non-linear pattern. Without fully considering these characteristics, existing studies usually concluded inconsistent findings. Investigating the lagged correlation pattern between malaria and climatic variables may improve the understanding of the association and generate possible better prediction models. This is especially beneficial to the south-west China, which is a high-incidence area in China.MethodsThirty counties in south-west China were selected, and corresponding weekly malaria cases and four weekly meteorological variables were collected from 2004 to 2009. The Multilevel Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (MDLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly malaria and weekly meteorological factors. The counties were divided into two groups, hot and cold weathers, in order to compare the difference under different climatic conditions and improve reliability and generalizability within similar climatic conditions.ResultsRainfall was associated with malaria cases in both hot and cold weather counties with a lagged correlation, and the lag range was relatively longer than those of other meteorological factors. Besides, the lag range was longer in hot weather counties compared to cold weather counties. Relative humidity was correlated with malaria cases at early and late lags in hot weather counties.Minimum temperature had a longer lag range and larger correlation coefficients for hot weather counties compared to cold weather counties. Maximum temperature was only associated with malaria cases at early lags.ConclusionUsing weekly malaria cases and meteorological information, this work studied the temporal lagged association pattern between malaria cases and meteorological information in south-west China. The results suggest that different meteorological factors show distinct patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation, and the patterns will depend on the climatic condition. Existing inconsistent findings for climatic factors’ lags could be due to either the invalid assumption of a single fixed lag or the distinct temperature conditions from different study sites. The lag pattern for meteorological factors should be considered in the development of malaria early warning system.
Highlights
The association between malaria and meteorological factors is complex due to the lagged and non-linear pattern
Malaria is transmitted by female mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, and the transmission and prevalence of malaria are influenced by many factors, in which meteorological factors are considered to play a crucial role
The results find that different meteorological factors have distinct patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation
Summary
The association between malaria and meteorological factors is complex due to the lagged and non-linear pattern. Without fully considering these characteristics, existing studies usually concluded inconsistent findings. Investigating the lagged correlation pattern between malaria and climatic variables may improve the understanding of the association and generate possible better prediction models. This is especially beneficial to the south-west China, which is a high-incidence area in China. For south-west China, the majority of previous studies focused on spatiotemporal pattern for mortality or morbidity [3,4,5], or pathogenic classifications of reported cases [6]. Similar inconsistent results were reported in sub-Saharan Africa [22]
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