The temporal correlation of fluctuation–variation in the non-stationary complex climate system

Abstract

In this article we mainly focus on the temporal correlation between the past dynamic fluctuations and the future motion of the dynamic variables in the climate system by means of a new temporal correlation function. When the complex climate system is assumed to be in the stationary states, that is, the dynamic effects of the non-stationary states are not considered, the above correlation is weak or even non-existent. Unexpectedly, a good correlation is shown when the dynamic effects of the non-stationary states are taken into account. Subsequently, we analyze the main factors contributing to these results and conclude that the small fluctuations make a major contribution to this. At the same time, we also find that this correlation function is somewhat stable over time scales. Finally, we extend our analysis by using the persistence probabilities. Knowing these is of key importance for the study of climate analysis and prediction.