The tax gap in Morocco: an econometric analysis of sociodemographic and fiscal factors’ impact

Abstract

This study aims to apprehend the impact of non-economic variables on the fiscal gap in Morocco, namely the sociodemographic and the fiscal factors (regulatory changes). The analysis is carried over the period 1980-2018 and includes economic control variables. To do so, we estimate a log-linear model using the modified least squares method. The results shed light on the effect of socio-demographic variables on the evolution of the tax gap in Morocco: age seems to reflect the effect of experience in circumventing taxation. Gender and education do not seem to have any effect on the tax gap in Morocco. The impact of economic control variables seems clear: incomes/profits generated in the trade sector seem to be subject to tax evasion/avoidance and consequently increase the tax gap in Morocco, compared to incomes that are generated by other sectors. Fiscal factors have been introduced in our estimations via dummy variables. They allowed us to conclude that economic agents are more sensitive to indirect fiscal measures and regulations, rather than to direct measures aiming at reducing the tax gap.