The Syrian Crisis and External Involvement: Geopolitical and Security Dimensions, March 2011 to December 2012

Abstract

The Arab Spring inspired Syrian uprising, which started in March 2011, and has been evolving into a civil war that might engulf the entire region. This asymmetrical conflict between the Asad regime and the opposition/rebels might bring the country to its knees with increasingly worrisome sectarian dimensions of infighting. The conflict has already attracted the attention of regional and global players whose involvement has been growing significantly. External powers are prompted to involve in Syria because of Syria’s geopolitical position and security implications. Although the US, EU, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar have been openly supporting the opposition they remain suspicious of some of the opposition groups who might be terrorists. Similarly, Russian and Iranian support to the regime appears fractional. Hence, they have been making absolute victory for any side improbable. In the meantime, the divided and uncoordinated foreign involvement in Syria might ensure the protraction of the conflict. Moreover, the rift within the permanent members of UN Security Council has been making a concerted international response to the Syrian crisis extremely difficult. In this paper, in addition to applying a post-colonial approach to trace the root causes of the crisis, I argue that the final outcome of the conflict will be determined by the Syrians themselves either in a battlefield or via negotiation. I also argue that the external involvement in Syria has been one of the major reasons why the fighting sustained. Indeed, the external supports in the Syrian conflict rendered to both parties have been neither sufficient nor full-hearted, in terms of military and diplomacy.