The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies

Abstract

This study explores the changing direction and degree of financial integration of the emerging economies, People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, with ASEAN-5 and compares it to the developed economies, the US and Japan, in a time-varying framework. The concordance and rolling concordance indices are used to study the cyclical behaviour in the ASEAN-5 stock markets with the economic activity of the emerging and developed economies. This study covers the period between January 1991 and June 2010. One of the more significant findings from this study is that ASEAN-5 stock markets do not react as a whole to external shock from these four trading partners. Each stock market in ASEAN-5 responded differently in terms of direction and degree towards the influences of the economic condition in these emerging and developed economies. The ASEAN-5 stock markets were less correlated with economic activities in emerging economies but were more aligned with economic activities in developed economies. In summary, ASEAN-5 stock market cycles were still more dependent on the developed economies’ growth rate cycles.