‘The Swarm Principle’: A Sub-National Spatial Analysis of Aid Targeting and Donor Coordination in Sub-Saharan Africa

Josiah F Marineau,Michael G Findley

doi:10.5334/sta.669

Abstract

Do bilateral and multilateral foreign aid donors target poverty? To answer that question, we present a framework for assessing the quality of aid targeting sub-nationally. If donors cluster aid in areas with concentrated poverty, or spread out aid in areas of diffuse poverty, then we conclude that donors are targeting aid well. Furthermore, because co-financing may be a mechanism that improves coordination and information-sharing among donors, we examine whether the frequency of donor co-financing increases the quality of aid targeting. Recently released sub-national georeferenced foreign aid data for all bilateral and multilateral donors are available in five sub-Saharan African countries, making it possible to map the placement of foreign aid along with sub-national poverty levels. Results indicate that foreign donors target poverty in some countries but not others, and higher co-financing is associated with lower quality targeting across all cases.

Highlights

In youth soccer, children inevitably swarm around the ball, regardless of its location on the field
This study examines whether bilateral and multilateral aid donors target poverty at the sub-national level in five sub-Saharan African countries, and whether donor coordination, measured here by the level of co-financing of aid, improves the quality of aid targeting
We propose that the frequency of co-financing among donors could facilitate the sharing of information in ways that may improve the overall quality of aid targeting within countries

Summary

Introduction

Children inevitably swarm around the ball, regardless of its location on the field. This study examines whether bilateral and multilateral aid donors target poverty at the sub-national level in five sub-Saharan African countries, and whether donor coordination, measured here by the level of co-financing of aid, improves the quality of aid targeting. Nunnenkamp, Sotirova, and Thiele (2016) examine bilateral and multilateral sub-national aid specialization in Malawi, finding little evidence of donor coordination in district and sectoral aid allocation, which has been confirmed in later studies, including Findley et al (2017b). Briggs (2016) considers World Bank and AfDB sub-national allocations to 17 African countries, finding that multilateral aid projects have neglected impoverished areas of countries but targeted richer areas, while a subsequent analysis of World Bank projects suggests greater effectiveness of aid targeting on poverty in some countries but poor quality in others (Öhler et al 2019).

Concentrated Poverty Diffuse Poverty

Findings

Conclusion