Abstract
<p>The Arctic passages are economically important waterways connecting North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. Global climate change is melting the Arctic sea ice and will improve the navigability of the Arctic passages. The opening of the Arctic route will facilitate the exploration and development of Arctic resources, which can alleviate the energy crisis, but it may ignite a worldwide “Arctic resource war”. Besides, the navigation of the Arctic passages will also burden the Arctic eco-environment and trigger a wave of eco-environmental effects in the Arctic region include exacerbating environmental pollution, threatening survival of life, intensifying climate change, changing local production and lives, even worldwide. On this basis, this study uses a system dynamics analysis of positive and negative effects to review the resource and environmental effects due to opening the Arctic passages and proposes the measures to ensure the resource and environmental sustainability.</p>
Highlights
The Arctic sea ice is melting twice as fast as the average rate of global warming—and this rate is accelerating
The rich natural resources of the Arctic region and the attractiveness of the Arctic passages themselves add to the allure of commercial navigation
The massive commercial gains to be earned from navigating the Arctic passages will lead to global competition to develop the Arctic region's energy resources and for navigation rights to the Arctic passages
Summary
The Arctic sea ice is melting twice as fast as the average rate of global warming—and this rate is accelerating. The Arctic melt season has ended, and the sea ice extent is increasing after reaching the fourth lowest minimum on record on September 11,2015 (NSIDC,2015). As the Arctic sea ice melts, the navigability of the Arctic passages will improve, bringing commercial navigation closer to reality. The massive commercial gains to be earned from navigating the Arctic passages will lead to global competition to develop the Arctic region's energy resources and for navigation rights to the Arctic passages. The impending navigability of the passages and the exploitation of energy resources will impact the fragile Arctic eco-environment. As natural resources and the environment are major factors affecting human development in the 21st century, the Arctic region's future development after the Arctic passages become navigable will depend on achieving a balance between energy resource exploitation and maintaining the eco-environment. Research must be conducted to determine the potential effects of navigable Arctic passages on both resources and the eco-environment to provide theoretical support for the reconciliation of resource development with environmental protection and to ensure the sustainability of the Arctic region in the process
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