The “Surge Phenomenon” of Macro Economy in Developing Countries from the Perspective of Tobacco Economy

Abstract

Objectives: Starting from the tobacco economy, this paper studies the “surge phenomenon” of macro-economy in developing countries. Methods: This paper studies the impact of tobacco industry on Anhui economy by using the relevant theories of industrial economics, econometrics and regulatory economics, combined with the actual situation of tobacco industry. Based on the analysis of the overall development of tobacco industry, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between tobacco industry and Anhui economic growth. This paper combs the relevant literature of the existing research results of this theory. Combined with the special fact that government investment accounts for a large proportion in China’s current economic construction, this paper redefines the hypothesis of the investor in the theory of principles. On this basis, the expected equilibrium results of enterprise investment decision-making under government led and market led modes are compared and analyzed by using incomplete information static game model. Results: When the output value of tobacco industry increases by 1%, it will drive the GDP to increase by 0.373%. Secondly, by comparing the economic benefits of tobacco with the social costs of tobacco, it is found that with the economic development, the social costs caused by tobacco increase year by year, but the economic benefits are slightly greater than the social costs. The difference between the two is also increasing year by year. Conclusion: In the context of tobacco control, we should fully consider the advantages and disadvantages of developing the tobacco industry. Under the excessive intervention of the government, the manifestation of the surge phenomenon is more intense, and the final consequence of overcapacity is more serious than that under the market-oriented mode..