The Support Vector Regression Method Performance Analysis in Predicting National Staple Commodity Prices

Abstract

Support Vector Regression (SVR) is a supervised learning algorithm to predict continuous variable values. The basic goal of the SVR algorithm is to find the most suitable decision line. SVR has been successfully applied to several issues in time series prediction. In this research, SVR is used to predict the price of staple commodity, which are constantly changing in price at any time due to several factors making it difficult for the public to get groceries that are easy to reach. National staple commodity data consisting of 17 commodities, including shallots, honan garlic, kating garlic, medium rice, premium rice, red cayenne peppers, curly red chilies, red chili peppers, meat of broiler chicken, beef hamstrings, granulated sugar, imported soybeans, bulk cooking oil, premium packaged cooking oil, simple packaged cooking oil, broiler chicken eggs, and wheat flour. With a data set for the last 3 years, including from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2022. There are 3 variables in the data set, namely commodity, date, and price. This research divides the entire dataset into 80% training and 20% testing data. The results of this research show that SVR using the RBF kernel produces good forecasting accuracy for all datasets with an average Mean Square Error (MSE) training data of 6,005 while data testing is 6,062, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of training data is 6,730 while data testing is 6.6831, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) training data is 0.0148 while data testing is 0.0147, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) training data is 7.772 while data testing is 7.746.