THE SUBSTANTIATION OF THE METHODICAL APPROACH FOR ESTIMATION OF DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY USING (THE GERMAN EXAMPLE)

Abstract

Purpose: the introduction of renewable energy technologies (RES) occurs against the backdrop of a developed hydrocarbon energy market, which raises the risk of seeing unreasonable decisions by investors. The development and use of various analytical tools can reduce such risks. Economic models based on calculations by dozens of experts of a number of macro- and micro-economic factors have been used to study the replacement of traditional energy technologies with already developed RES technologies. At the same time, simpler but more effective econometric methods are being developed, based on the data of real projects and allowing to conduct research for the recently launched RES technologies. The main purpose of this article is to substantiate one of such methodologies used to asses growth dynamics of developing offshore wind energy based on the example of Germany – the leading country in the North Sea basin. Methods: many foreign and domestic authoritative organizations have developed a number of fairly complex models in order to study the economic substitution processes in fuel and energy complexes of different countries, calculate trends and forecasts in this area. Such models take into account findings of dozens of experts focusing on various macro and micro economic parameters and factors, including GDP, growth of employment, welfare, trade and many others. However, econometric methods based on the study of learning curves and calculations of the present value of LCOE electricity according to real energy projects tend to be simpler and effective tool used in order to estimates the recently developed RES technologies for which substantial volumes of data have not yet developed. This article considers substantiation of such methodical and mathematical approaches used to evaluate the dynamics of the development of offshore wind energy technologies using the model "Times model", modified by the author. Results: the feasibility analysis of using the mathematical apparatus of learning curves was carried out for estimating the dynamics of the development of renewable energy technologies. It has shown that, in accordance with the learning curve, there is a decrease in costs - the standardized cost of energy LCOE (level of costs of energy). The application of the econometric methodology of LCOE estimation was considered for foreign developing technologies of marine renewable energy and its modification with reference to offshore wind technologies research. The calculations of LCOE for real offshore wind platforms in Germany, as well as the dynamics of the average initial investment in these projects have been completed. The results of analytical and graphical evaluation of training curves for offshore winds in Germany are given. Conclusions and Relevance: the materials presented in the article show the special role of developing RES technologies in the leading European countries of the North Sea basin. The feasibility of the method modified by the author is shown, both for estimating the dynamics of the decrease in the normalized value of LCOE, and for constructing training curves for developing technologies similar to offshore wind power installations. The methodology presented in the article can be used to study the replacement of traditional energy technologies by developing renewable energy technologies not only in Germany, but also in other countries, including Russia. Offshore wind power installations of high power in our country should be located in the Arctic and Far Eastern seas, where very strong winds are stable. These newly developed renewable energy technologies also have a huge export potential, which can be successfully utilized by the domestic shipbuilding industry.