The study on the drive mechanism and prediction of the impervious surface expansion with index of entropy

Abstract

Index of entropy was adopted to mine the drive mechanisms for impervious surface (IS) expansion. With rapid urbanisation, the effects of the spread and growth of the impervious surface on eco-environmental are profound. Thus, studying the interior mechanism of impervious surface expansions have becoming more significant. The results show that the number of neighbourhood impervious surface is of the overriding factor with the influence weight of 0.057554; the second are GDP and housing price with the weight of 0.037747, 0.036875, respectively; the thirdly factors are population density and DEM with the effect weight of 0.026878 and 0.020955, respectively. It can be deduce that the main factors of the impervious surface expansion are social-economic factors. Finally, we predicted the expansion of the impervious surface from 2002 to 2020. Compared with the classification map of the impervious surface, the simulation accuracy is 82.36% using the point to point model. And the accuracy of the kappa coefficient is 87.15% about impervious surface, and 89.31% for pervious surface, indicating that the model is relatively reliable to simulate the impervious surface expansion, and the spatial distribution of simulation results are consistent with the actual classification of the impervious surface in the Dianchi Lake basin.