Abstract
According to the status of water resources shortage in Alar, this paper establishes a system dynamics (SD) model for the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and analyzes the balance between water resources supply and demand. Three cases are designed to simulate the level of WRCC from 2010 to 2030. The total water demand and secondary product output value are chosen as the evaluation indices to study the WRCC in Alar. The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Alar cannot meet the demand of social economic development in recent years, and case 3 could effectively alleviate water scarcity. Based on the results, in order to guarantee sustainable utilization of water resources and social economy development, it is necessary to increase water saving policies and increase the introduction amount of surface water in the future.
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