The study of spatiotemporal patterns integrating temporal uncertainty in late prehistoric settlements in northeastern Spain

Abstract

This paper explores the integration of two variables that are typically difficult to use in spatial analysis: time and uncertainty. A framework is constructed to analyse mid- and long-term variation in settlement dynamics during late prehistory in northeastern Spain. Following previous proposals, an aoristic model is built with ceramic dating to feed a Monte Carlo simulation that explores the case study using a discrete time-step approach. At the same time, available radiometric dating is used to validate the accuracy of the simulation results. Departing from the static analysis of spatial variables, the model proposes a new approach by which researchers can address temporal uncertainty. The results show that patterns detected by classical spatial analysis can be produced by artefacts derived from the division of time in chronological units instead of discrete time periods. The model is also used to compare a priori identical variations whose rate of change, when analysed with this approach, is revealed to be completely different.