The Study of Regional Industrial Structure Resilience to Cyclical Crises

Abstract

When forming economic policy, the question always arises: is there a long-term growth trend in the economy now, or is there a short-term economic growth associated with fluctuations in the business cycle? There are several approaches to answering this question. The first is oriented on the determine the phases of the business cycles. The second approach is to study the long-term growth trend and cycles as deviations from this trend. In modern works, was proved the regularity between the nature of the cycle and the elasticity of substitution of the utility function of a representative agent. In other words, as the economy stabilizes, the risk appetite increases, and it determines the greater impact of external shocks. In times of crisis, when uncertainty increases, on the contrary, the propensity to risk decreases and the dynamics of the cycle becomes more coherent with the long-term development trend. This fact makes considered the infrastructure as a factor of business cycle stabilizer. So the infrastructure should not be considered in the context of a competitive market. Since it is reflecting two types of market failures: technological indivisibility and planned increasing returns on scale. Using the method of mathematical clustering based on data from 2000-2018, the article identifies regions of Russia with different characteristics of the relationship between industrial and transport complexes. Complementing the study with an assessment of the overall dynamics of economic growth, the author identifies key industries and effects that occur in regions of the North-Western Federal District.