Abstract
Ensemble forecast which makes up for the lack of the single forecast, is a shift from deterministic forecast to probabilistic forecast. Based on the above ideas, this paper takes the Jianghua as study basin,and uses the ECWMF ensemble forecast precipitation data to drive the flood forecasting model for flood forecasting. The result shows that the ensemble forecast flood forecasting can get the range of runoff simulation. And 75% of the process line Q75 is used as a deterministic process line which can simulate the flood well. The method not only ensures the accuracy of flood forecast, but also prevents the period of flood. Reliability of the application of ensemble forecast in flood forecast is proved.
Highlights
Affected by the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, flood disasters have a new feature: mega-floods occur in new areas that have not been recorded in history; floods are larger than historical floods and occur more frequently [1]
In traditional flood forecasting, hydrological station or rainfall station observation precipitation or radar rainfall data is often directly input into the flood forecasting model, but in this way the hydrological forecasting period of this method is short
From a theoretical point of view, in order to achieve the purpose of prolonging the flood forecasting period, it is one of the most effective ways to use the forecast precipitation during the period as the input of the hydrological model
Summary
Affected by the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, flood disasters have a new feature: mega-floods occur in new areas that have not been recorded in history; floods are larger than historical floods and occur more frequently [1]. Based on the existing flood control engineering measures, the establishment of a flood forecasting system with high precision and sufficient forecast period will provide an important scientific basis for decision-making of flood control dispatchers. Precipitation is one of the most important information in flood forecasting. In traditional flood forecasting, hydrological station or rainfall station observation precipitation or radar rainfall data is often directly input into the flood forecasting model, but in this way the hydrological forecasting period of this method is short. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is speculated by the possibility of future weather, and ensemble forecast which makes up for the lack of a "single" forecast. The study of flood forecasting based on ensemble prediction can better describe the uncertainty of precipitation forecast, reflecting the uncertainty of flood forecasting, and provide more risk assessment information for decision-makers of flood control work
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