The Structure of Prediction Market Research: Important Publications and Research Clusters

Abstract

This research paper identifies the most important publications and research clusters in the field of prediction markets. Two literature reviews in 2007 and 2014 have already shown a rising number of publications and classified them into several classes. However, the a priori selection of classes limited the analysis. Furthermore, it is still not quantitatively measured which publications have influenced prediction market research most. This research paper extends the existing literature based on the analysis of more than 18,000 citations. Thus, it identifies the most important publications and relevant research topics. It indicates that prediction market research relies primarily on publications within its own field. This paper concludes that some publications have already become “classic” and four main research clusters have emerged: Efficient information aggregation, manipulation, innovation markets and forecasting elections.