The structural identifiability of susceptible–infective–recovered type epidemic models with incomplete immunity and birth targeted vaccination

Abstract

This paper considers the implications of a structural identifiability analysis on a series of fundamental three-compartment epidemic model structures, derived around the general SIR (susceptible–infective–recovered) framework. The models represent various forms of incomplete immunity acquired through natural infection, or from administration of a birth targeted vaccination programme. It is shown that the addition of a vaccination campaign has a negative effect on the structural identifiability of all considered models. In particular, the actual proportion of vaccination coverage achieved, an essential parameter, cannot be uniquely estimated from even ideal prevalence data.