The Strategic Logic of Taiwanization

Abstract

n Taiwan, since the early 1990s, Taiwanese identity has rapidly supplanted Chinese identity. This has pushed all the main political parties to adopt policies favorable to the new identity, and brought the Democratic Progres sive Party to power. Rising Taiwanese identity has also affected military strategies. It has accelerated the cross-strait arms race by alarm ing Beijing, which in turn has led to an offset ting buildup in Taiwan. It has also strengthened Taiwan's will to retain her independence and, thereby, led to newer, more unconventional defense strategies. One such policy is to enhance the ideological legitimacy of Tai wanese nationalism in the United States and Japan. Another policy is to embrace economic integration with China-a development hitherto seen as threatening. A third policy is to deter a Chinese attack by credibly committing Taiwan and its allies to a more dogged fight to preserve Taiwanese independence, even under condi tions where such a fight seems hopeless. Finally, a strong Taiwanese identity makes it more likely that China's increasing conventional military predominance will ultimately call forth a Tai wanese nuclear deterrent. National identity and political development: A distinctly Taiwanese national identity unfolded rapidly following Taiwan's democratization in the late 1980s. This process can be seen in many areas of Taiwan's culture and politics. Consider the changes over time in the familiar polls asking if people identify themselves as Taiwanese, Chi nese, or both. From 1992 to 2004, those that con sider themselves to be only Taiwanese rose from 17.3 percent in 1992, to around 25 percent in the mid-1990s, to around 40 percent from 1999 to the present; whereas those that self-identify exclusively as Chinese fell from about 26 per cent in the early 1.990s, to around 20 percent in the mid-1990s, to a bit over 10 percent in late 2001, to 6.3 percent in June 2004.1 Since the early 1990s, there has been a corre ponding decline in the fortunes of Taiwan's tra itional rul g party, the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, which continued to rule Taiwan after being driven f m the mainland in 1949, long presided over an authoritarian regime commit ted to eunification with China under a noncom