The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Monopoly

Abstract

This chapter presents a framework to account for conflict in nuclear monopoly. It begins by outlining the benefits and costs of nuclear use in nuclear monopoly for the nuclear weapon state (NWS). This establishes the strategic environment that the nonnuclear weapon state (NNWS) confronts. NNWS leadership can act so long as it believes that the costs of nuclear use for its nuclear-armed opponent outweigh the benefits of nuclear use relative to conventional military alternatives. The more militarily capable the NNWS is relative to the NWS, the more the former must limit its behavior. As a result, wars in nuclear monopoly will tend to occur when the NWS has a large conventional military advantage. In all confrontations, the NNWS will highlight strategic factors that inhibit nuclear use and, when necessary, seek to reduce the benefits and raise the costs of nuclear use for the NWS.