Abstract
Common flood risk analyses often focus on direct impacts corresponding to the maximum depths of flood events. However, this information is not sufficient for risk communication, for the design of flood emergency plans and for the selection of risk management measures. For those issues, not only a static view of the maximum flood intensity is required, but also an understanding of the sequence of events from the rise of the threat to its recovery (including the action and reaction of actors). This paper discusses a new, additional approach to support flood risk management: the storyline approach, which serves to analyse the whole sequence of events during a flood. It starts from the initial rise of the flood threat, then describes the actual flooding and ends with the recovery from the flood impacts. It shows in a structured way the most important subsystems (water system, critical infrastructure system) and actors (water managers, local authorities, critical infrastructure operators, inhabitants) and their interactions. The application of the storyline approach to Dordrecht, the Netherlands, illustrates its use not only for flood event management, but also for the analysis of critical infrastructure vulnerability. The approach is designed to be applied in workshops with all relevant actors. The storylines support the communication of what might happen and help to develop consistent flood risk management strategies and emergency plans.
Highlights
Recent flood events in, among others, Thailand (2011) (Komori et al 2012), India (2013, 2014), (Anonymus 2015), Japan (2011) (Norio et al 2011), the UK (2007, 2014) (Pitt 2008; Muchan et al 2015) and Central Europe (2002, 2012) (Anonymus2 2015) show that floods still cause significant impacts
The vulnerability of the critical infrastructure to flooding is relevant for the total flood impacts, since the possibilities to survive are larger in areas with functioning critical infrastructure networks and emergency actions such as evacuation and rescue depend on the state of the roads and communication networks
Two storyline scenarios were selected and storylines were developed by researchers based on the literature, flood simulations and interviews with emergency managers, local authorities and critical infrastructure networks (CIs) operators (Lips 2013), and the results were discussed in detail in workshops with all organizations and stakeholders to fill in gaps and to interact with the researchers and with each other
Summary
Among others, Thailand (2011) (Komori et al 2012), India (2013, 2014), (Anonymus 2015), Japan (2011) (Norio et al 2011), the UK (2007, 2014) (Pitt 2008; Muchan et al 2015) and Central Europe (2002, 2012) (Anonymus2 2015) show that floods still cause significant impacts. The impacts of flood events are usually analysed by translating the flood characteristics to direct flood impacts (e.g. economic damage, fatalities) by means of unitloss methods with relationships between the two (such as depth-damage curves or mortality functions) Indirect impacts, such as income losses, or production outside the flooded area is rarely considered because of their complex nature (Kreibich et al 2014). Instead of using ‘static’ risk mapping, such analyses should consider the possible sequences of events during the incident and recovery phase This will likely result in more efficient protection and mitigation strategies and allows revealing the most critical factors determining the final estimates of potential fatalities and damage. The paper first discusses the storyline approach in general, illustrates this approach by its application for the Island of Dordrecht, and ends with a discussion on the findings, and conclusions
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