The Stock Market Situation and Economic Growth – An Attempt to Assess the Dependence

Abstract

The aim of the article: The main aim of the article is to analyze the relationship between the stock market situation and the real economy, measured by the strength of the correlation between the rate of return on the stock market and the rate of GDP growth in European capital markets. The next objective is to answer the question whether the stock market index changes are ahead of, and if so, by how much, GDP changes. The author’s hypothesis stipulates that the stock exchange situation precedes the change in economic activity and serves as its forecast.
 Methodology: The empirical research work was carried out on the basis of quarterly data value of the stock index and the GDP between 2010 and the first quarter of 2021 for 20 European countries. For indices and GDP, the quarterly dynamics of the rate of return and GDP were calculated. Data on the value of the stock exchange index was taken from the website www.stooq.pl, while data on GDP was taken from Eurostat. Subsequently, the analysis concerned the correlation relationships between the variables on the basis of the Pearson correlation coefficient. The correlation between the variables was calculated without delay, as well as with a delay of one, two or three quarters of the returns on stock indices.
 Results of the research: Changes in the value of the stock exchange index is in most cases positively correlated with the change in GDP and the correlation is pronounced, but it is low and moderate. The only market for which a significant correlation was observed, was the Polish market. At the same time, it can be stated that the rates of return on the stock exchange index precede a change in GDP by one or three quarters. No changes were observed for the analyzed countries for two quarters.