The Steel Industry in Transition: Changing Influencing Factors and Trend Forecasts

Abstract

With the implementation of the "double carbon" policy and the change in national industrial structure, China's steel industry is undergoing a difficult transition. In this paper, rolling iterative regression is used to investigate the main influencing factors of steel production and the changes in these factors in China during the transition; furthermore, a lagged model is used to forecast the trend of steel production. The results find that: firstly, gross construction output is the most important influencing factor for steel production; secondly, crude steel production, coke production, and social fixed investment were all once important influencing factors, but have shown insignificant effects in recent years; thirdly, the trend of steel production is expected to maintain steady growth.