The Statistical Analysis of the Transaction Volume of Peer-to-Peer Lending in China

Yingdong Wang,Yueming Zheng,Xinru Xu,Xiaoyan Yang,Yanbin Zhang,Y Ahn,F Wu

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202021403002

Abstract

Since 2013, China’s P2P lending industry has developed rapidly, but many related problems have been exposed. Following the regulation of the P2P lending industry, the transaction volume of the P2P lending declines significantly. In order to study the development trend of China’s P2P lending industry, based on the monthly data of China’s P2P lending transaction volume from January 2014 to December 2019, the regression method was used to make seasonal adjustment. Then the Newey-west estimation method was used to make regression to establish the P2P lending transaction volume model in China. After analysis, it is concluded that the structure of China’s P2P lending industry changed in 2017, and the volume of P2P lending industry will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, China’s P2P lending industry not only needs to strengthen the supervision system of Internet credit, but also needs to promote Internet credit innovation and develop Internet credit technology and business model.

Highlights

Since 2013, Peer-to-Peer lending (P2P lending), as a new financial business model, has developed rapidly. It is characterized by low cost, low threshold, universal benefits and convenience, opening up a new financing channel for small and micro enterprises and individual investors
Low default cost leads to high credit risk, frequent illegal fund-raising, and increased default risk
In 2017, the adjustment of the Chinese government to the P2P lending industry and the introduction of relevant policies resulted in the structural break of the P2P lending industry in China

Summary

Introduction

Since 2013, Peer-to-Peer lending (P2P lending), as a new financial business model, has developed rapidly. It is characterized by low cost, low threshold, universal benefits and convenience, opening up a new financing channel for small and micro enterprises and individual investors. P2P lending refers to online credit companies using online platforms to promote both parties to reach a deal through free bidding and collect service fees, while the borrower gains interest income but needs to bear corresponding risks at the same time [3]. China's P2P lending industry has experienced a rapid growth before being regulated by the administration. The P2P lending industry is facing the most difficult moment. By analyzing the monthly transaction data of China's P2P lending industry from 2014 to 2019, this paper establishes a trading volume model of China's P2P lending industry and analyzes the development trend of China's P2P lending industry, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions

Overview of Development Process

Empirical Research

Robustness Check

Findings

Conclusions and Recommendations