The stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregate data by employing linear and nonlinear unit root tests

Abstract

This study is the first attempt to investigate the stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregates data by employing linear and non-linear unit root tests extending from 1970 to 2006. It is concluded that the linearity is rejected in 4 cases in 7 Turkish sectors. In addition, when LM (Lagrange multiplier) tests that account for at most two structural breaks are taken into account for residential, industrial and agricultural where energy consumption follow a linear behavior, the unit root null is rejected. This means that energy demand management policies designed to shrink energy consumption will instead have a transitory impact on the energy consumption and return it toward its original trend path. On the other hand, it’s concluded that the transportation, non-energy uses & other, final energy consumption and cycle & energy sector’s energy consumption are non-stationary which means that any shock to energy consumption is likely to be permanent and energy demand management policies will have a permanent impact on these sectors.