Abstract
This article is aimed at determining the significance of the state of the world economy as a threat to national security for the public of the Russia, as well as the formalization of the factors determining this. The study is based on a sociological approach and assumes primary attention to society, not the state, and cognitive factors. Using the methods of applied statistics, the data of the international sociological survey held in February-May 2017 in 38 countries were analyzed. The reports and statistical bases of the World Economic Forum, the World Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the Central Intelligence Agency were also analyzed. The study showed a plurality of factors that determine the assessment of threats to national security: both the personal characteristics of people and the characteristics of the development of their countries. From all of the countries reviewed, evaluations of Russians to the greatest extent correspond to the estimates of residents of Israel. The multiple regression equation was constructed, it allows to calculate the current and forecast public assessment of the state of the world economy as a threat for the country's security. The results can be used for further studies of security discourse and threat perception. Also, knowledge of the factors that determine the threat assessment will help to choose the tools and measures that will create both objective and subjective security (its feeling).
Highlights
: national security, economic security, risk, global competitiveness, export of goods and services, sociological approach, multiple regression
This article is aimed at determining the significance of the state of the world economy
well as the formalization of the factors determining this. The study is based on a sociological approach
Summary
Состояние мировой экономики рассматривается как фактор, влияющий на национальную безопасность населения России. С помощью методов прикладной статистики и социологического подхода были проанализированы данные международного социологического опроса, проходившего в феврале-мае 2017 года в 38 странах. Проанализированы отчеты и статистические базы Всемирного экономического форума, Всемирного банка, Европейской экономической комиссии ООН и Центрального разведывательного управления США. В рамках исследования была показана множественность факторов, определяющих оценки угроз национальной безопасности с учетом персональных характеристик людей и особенностей развития стран их проживания. Было построено уравнение множественной регрессии, которое позволяет рассчитывать текущую и прогнозную оценки населением угрозы состояния мировой экономики для безопасности страны. Определяющих оценки угроз, поможет выбрать те инструменты и меры, которые создадут объективную и субъективную безопасность и ее ощущение. В. Состояние мировой экономики как угроза безопасности России: оценки населения и влияющие факторы // Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент. The state of the world economy as a threat to Russia's security: public estimates and influencing factors
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