The Stability of M3 Money Demand and Monetary Growth Targets: The Case of South Africa

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to determine whether money should continue to play an important role in the formulation of monetary policy in South Africa, even though the monetary policy framework has recently changed to an inflation targeting strategy. Money can continue to play an important role in the formulation of an efficient monetary policy strategy as long as there is a stable money demand function and money contains useful information about future price changes. The paper presents empirical evidence of a constant and structurally stable M3 money demand function for South Africa over the period 1968-97. The analysis further shows that the non-constancies experienced during 1998-99 may only be temporary. Despite evidence of a stable M3 money demand function, the results indicate that M3 money provides little information about future price changes in South Africa and may therefore have lost its usefulness as a reliable indicator for monetary policy. The money stock is endogenous, with prices determining money through the stable M3 money demand function.