The stability analysis of a co-circulation model for COVID-19, dengue, and zika with nonlinear incidence rates and vaccination strategies

Abstract

This paper aims to study the impacts of COVID-19 and dengue vaccinations on the dynamics of zika transmission by developing a vaccination model with the incorporation of saturated incidence rates. Analyses are performed to assess the qualitative behavior of the model. Carrying out bifurcation analysis of the model, it was concluded that co-infection, super-infection and also re-infection with same or different disease could trigger backward bifurcation. Employing well-formulated Lyapunov functions, the model’s equilibria are shown to be globally stable for a certain scenario. Moreover, global sensitivity analyses are performed out to assess the impact of dominant parameters that drive each disease’s dynamics and its co-infection. Model fitting is performed on the actual data for the state of Amazonas in Brazil. The fittings reveal that our model behaves very well with the data. The significance of saturated incidence rates on the dynamics of three diseases is also highlighted. Based on the numerical investigation of the model, it was observed that increased vaccination efforts against COVID-19 and dengue could positively impact zika dynamics and the co-spread of triple infections.