Abstract
BackgroundCOVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak.MethodsData was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05).ResultsThe COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal.ConclusionsImprovement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.
Highlights
IntroductionThe trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria
COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern
As at the time of writing this report, situation assessment showed that the compliance with the government directive on precautionary measures against COVID-19 was low in Nigeria [2]
Summary
The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is one of the diseases that have constituted global threats in human history. The global burden of disease attributable to COVID-19 is enormous [1,2,3]. COVID-19 has spread to almost all countries of the world including Nigeria [3]. The first case was confirmed in Nigeria on 27 February 2020 [2] and by day 120 (25 June 2020), the cumulative cases had risen to 22,614 [2]. There was a suspicion that the reported confirmed cases did not reflect the true situation because of the low level of testing
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