The Specter of a Color Revolution

Abstract

This chapter examines the question of how a state as strong as Vladimir Putin's Russia could yet be afraid of its own population. It explores the fear of a Russian color revolution, the importance of stability and economic growth to Putin's legitimacy, and his use of class divisions and nationalist rhetoric to divide real and potential opponents. The increased fear of a color revolution clearly stemmed from the events next door in Ukraine. It was also driven by concerns about the economy, specifically regarding the sudden drop in oil prices, which also occurred in 2014, the same year as the Maidan revolution. However, the potential for a Russian color revolution is fairly low. Many of the color revolutions elsewhere have arisen over charges of widespread fraud in elections, whereas support for President Putin, and even United Russia, has been sufficiently high so that — at least so far — blatant fraud to change election outcomes has not been needed. Moreover, when political protests did break out over charges of electoral fraud in 2011–2012, Putin succeeded in heightening social divisions between “real Russians” in the industrial and rural hinterlands and the cosmopolitan professionals in the major cities.