Abstract
Current explosive outbreak of COVID-19 around the world is a complex spatiotemporal process with hidden interactions between viruses and humans. This study aims at clarifying the transmission patterns and the driving mechanism that contributed to the COVID-19 prevalence across the provinces of China. Thus, a new dynamical transmission model is established by an ordinary differential system. The model takes into account the hidden circulation of COVID-19 virus among/within humans, which incorporates the spatial diffusion of infection by parameterizing human mobility. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is a unique epidemic threshold, which can unite infectivity in each region by human mobility and can totally determine whether COVID-19 proceeds among multiple regions. By validating the model with real epidemic data in China, it is found that (1) if without any intervention, COVID-19 would overrun China within three months, resulting in more than 1.1 billion clinical infections and 0.2 billion subclinical infections; (2) high frequency of human mobility can trigger COVID-19 diffusion across each province in China, no matter where the initial infection locates; (3) travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions must be implemented simultaneously for disease control; and (4) infection sites in central and east (rather than west and northeast) of China would easily stimulate quick diffusion of COVID-19 in the whole country.Supplementary InformationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1.
Highlights
The pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, which can spread from an infected person’s mouth or nose in small liquid particles when they cough, sneeze, speak, sing or breathe [1]
The present study is an attempt to provide a modeling framework allowed for inferring its spatiotemporal transmission patterns by focusing on its outbreak in the provinces of China
This paper presented a new mathematical model via ordinary differential equations (ODE), which couples the intrinsic transmission dynamics, including the disease evolution in humans among different states, infection action by human– human contact, and human mobility among different regions
Summary
The pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, which can spread from an infected person’s mouth or nose in small liquid particles when they cough, sneeze, speak, sing or breathe [1] Such easy transmission routes coupled with frequent human mobility quickly result in explosive outbreak around the world. Qualitative theory is used to analyze the propagation dynamics of the model, including the expression of the basic reproduction number and the equilibria, the global stability of the diseasefree and endemic equilibria This model is applied to investigate the detailed transmission patterns of COVID-19 across the provinces in China
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