The spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services bundles and the social-economic-ecological drivers in the Yellow River Delta region

Abstract

• The temporal correlations of ΔESs between two consecutive years showed the similar patterns. • The spatial correlations of ESs in different years changed considerably. • The types of ESs bundles increased, with new bundles found in 2004 and 2015 respectively. • ESs hotspots based on natural ecosystems decreased, while those based on artificial ecosystems increased. • Increases in artificial wetlands, urban lands, and crop yields were the key drivers of the ES bundles change. Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services (ESs) is important for ecosystem management and sustainable development. However, most studies used synergies and trade-offs to infer ESs relationships, while ESs bundles was infrequently involved. Research on the spatiotemporal dynamics and potential drivers of changes of ESs bundles is still lacking. In this study, we quantified and mapped 10 ESs in 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, and 2015 in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) region. The hotspots analysis was first used to discern areas of high and low ESs supplies, and the Spearman correlation analysis was then applied to examining the spatiotemporal trade-offs and synergies of ESs. The K-means clustering algorithm was used to identify the ESs bundles, while the Random Forest analysis was further used to identify the drivers of changes of ESs hotspots and bundles between 1986 and 2015. Results showed that: (1) the ESs hotspots areas with natural ecosystems were reduced, while the ESs hotspots areas with artificial ecosystems increased; (2) the temporal correlations between two consecutive years showed the similar patterns, while the spatial correlations changed greatly; (3) the types of ESs bundles increased, and the bundles provided by natural ecosystem were replaced by the bundles provided by artificial ecosystems; (4) the increase of artificial wetlands, built-up lands, and agricultural yields, as well as the decrease of marsh lands were the determinant drivers of changes in the ES bundles. Our findings are expected to enhance the current understanding of ESs relationships and contribute to the targeted ESs management in coastal areas.