The spatial prediction and optimization of production-living-ecological space based on Markov–PLUS model: A case study of Yunnan Province

Abstract

Abstract Production-living-ecological space (PLES) reflects the main function of land use types. It is one of the main directions that many scholars researched to evaluate, predict, and optimize the land space from the perspective of PLES. Yunnan Province is affected by such factors as economy, topography, and natural environment. The conflict of PLES is serious, and the problems of spatial planning development are prominent. This study aims at the current status of PLES, based on the establishment of restrictive constraints such as ecological red line, arable land minimum, and natural reserves. Meanwhile, these constraints were combined with the development planning of the Yunnan Province to forecast the quantitative structure change in the PLES in Yunnan Province in 2035 and 2050, coupling Markov and PLUS models to optimize the future space layout. This study can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of land space in Yunnan Province and other areas. The prediction accuracy of the Markov–PLUS model is 98.55%, which can be effectively used to simulate and predict the distribution of PLES in Yunnan in 2035 and 2050. From 2010 to 2015, the disordered layout of PLES in the Yunnan Province was obvious, and the ecological space (ES) seriously occupied the production space (PS) and living space (LS). In 2035 and 2050, the industrial production space (IPS) of Yunnan Province expands and presents distinct regional aggregation. LS and the water ecological space (WES) areas have increased. The layout of PLES in 2035 and 2050 of Yunnan Province mainly centers on PS. The orderly development of IPS promotes the regional economic growth, ensures that the agricultural production space (APS) will not be damaged and allocates the ES reasonably. It will also promote the overall optimization and coordinated development of PLES in Yunnan Province.