The Spatial Model using TRIGRS to determine Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Banjarnegara, Central Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Severe landslides followed by debris flow were recorded to have occurred on 12 December 2014 and discovered to have ruined infrastructures and buried hundreds of peoples in Karangkobar subdistrict of Banjarnegara district, Central Java. There was, however, a high rainfall of up to 200 mm per day for two days before the disaster. Therefore, this research was conducted to predict and assess the landslide area using Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) version 2.0 model to calculate the pore water pressure and safety factor (FS) during rainfall infiltration. The TRIGRS model focused on spatial analysis. The data used as input for this analysis include the DEM, geological and geotechnical properties, infiltration variables, and rainfall intensity. Meanwhile, the FS value was observed to be lowest at the initial condition before rainfall infiltration by ranging between 1 and 1.2 and distributed at the steep slope area near Jemblung. The results were validated through the back analysis of a reference landslide event and the instability in the area was confirmed to be initiated in the 3 three hours of rainfall while the hazards area occurs majorly at the steep slopes with slope angles greater than 30o after 24 hours. The simulation results showed the steep slope area with an inclination angle greater than 30o is susceptible to failure during the rainfall infiltration due to FS < 1.2 while some locations with steep slopes were likely not to fail as indicated by FS >1.2. This study generally concluded that the TRIGRS was able to predict the location of the failure when compared with the results from the field observation of the landslide occurrences.