The spatial dynamics of local violence, 2017–2021: examining the distribution and predictors of changes in street segment violence during the “crime surge”

Abstract

ABSTRACT Aggravated assault and homicide both increased in 2020 and 2021 in the United States, generating considerable public concern. As such, the current study examines whether (1) the increase in violence during the 2020–2021 period uniquely affected some local street segments more so than others when compared to the previous years 2017–2019 and, in turn, (2) whether specific socio-demographic characteristics are associated with different changes in local violence during the 2020–2021 period. The current study focuses on the City of Little Rock, Arkansas, examining violence across streets nested within block groups. Descriptive analyses are followed by mixed-effect models to examine the potential change (increase, decrease) or stability in violence occurrence, including whether a first incident occurred in the years 2020–2021. The central finding was that the violence surge only impacted a small number of street segments – just over 14% of the total sample in Little Rock – and roughly the same proportion experienced a decrease in violence during this same period of time. The results are further discussed from a crime prevention and policing perspective.