Abstract
One of the ecosystems in the coastal areas that have a very important role is mangrove forest. Segara Anakan, Cilacap is an area that has the largest mangrove potential in Java. However, the condition of the mangrove both qualitative and quantitative are decreasing. Utilization of remote sensing and GIS technology for the provision of information on the distribution and presence of mangrove forest is growing. The aim of this study is to create a model of distribution changes mangrove forests in 1987-2016 and forecast the distribution of mangrove forests in 2031 in Segara Anakan, Cilacap. Satellite imagery that used such imagery SPOT 1 in 1987, Landsat 7 ETM + in 2003 and Landsat 8 OLI 2016. The method used is a Markov-Chain, Cellular Automata with driving factors such as distance from settlements, population density, distance from the road, distance from the river, the distance from the center of activity, sedimentation and salinity. The results showed a decrease in the distribution of mangroves in the western part of Segara Anakan precisely in the north of the lagoon where the majority of mangrove forest land converted to the rice field. The predicted distribution of mangrove forests in 2031 is the addition of mangrove forests in the lagoon Segara Anakan, precisely the western part due to conversion to the rice field and dry land agriculture.
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