Abstract
BackgroundInternational literature has illustrated that the health impacts of heat waves vary according to differences in the spatial variability of high temperatures and the social and economic characteristics of populations and communities. However, to date there have been few studies that quantitatively assess the health vulnerability to heat waves in China.ObjectivesTo assess the spatial distribution of health vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong Province, China.MethodsA vulnerability framework including dimensions of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was employed. The last two dimensions were called social vulnerability. An indicator pool was proposed with reference to relevant literatures, local context provided by relevant local stakeholder experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis were used to determine the weight of indicators. A multiplicative vulnerability index (VI) was constructed for each district/county of Guangdong province, China.ResultsA total of 13 items (two for exposure, six for sensitivity, and five for adaptive capacity) were proposed to assess vulnerability. The results of an AHP revealed that the average VI in Guangdong Province was 0.26 with the highest in the Lianzhou and Liannan counties of Qingyuan (VI=0.50) and the lowest in the Yantian district of Shenzhen (VI=0.08). Vulnerability was gradiently distributed with higher levels in northern inland regions and lower levels in southern coastal regions. In the principal component analysis, three components were isolated from the 11 social vulnerability indicators. The estimated vulnerability had a similar distribution pattern with that estimated by AHP (Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)=0.98, p<0.01).ConclusionsHealth vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong Province had a distinct spatial distribution, with higher levels in northern inland regions than that in the southern coastal regions.
Highlights
International literature has illustrated that the health impacts of heat waves vary according to differences in the spatial variability of high temperatures and the social and economic characteristics of populations and communities
SIj þ n where VIj indicates the overall vulnerability index (VI) to heat waves in district/county j. It is estimated mathematically combining the following components: EIj is the component measuring the level of exposure to heat waves within district/county j; SIj is the sensitivity index for district/ county j; AIj is the adaptive capacity index for district/ county j; and n is the total number of components included in the sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index
The southern regions of the Guangdong Province are adjacent to the South China Sea, and as water has a larger heat capacity than land, proximity to the sea could result in the absorption of solar-radiation during hot days, and attenuate the high temperatures [33]
Summary
International literature has illustrated that the health impacts of heat waves vary according to differences in the spatial variability of high temperatures and the social and economic characteristics of populations and communities. To date there have been few studies that quantitatively assess the health vulnerability to heat waves in China. Objectives: To assess the spatial distribution of health vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong Province, China. A multiplicative vulnerability index (VI) was constructed for each district/county of Guangdong province, China. Results: A total of 13 items (two for exposure, six for sensitivity, and five for adaptive capacity) were proposed to assess vulnerability. Vulnerability was gradiently distributed with higher levels in northern inland regions and lower levels in southern coastal regions. In the principal component analysis, three components were isolated from the 11 social vulnerability indicators. Conclusions: Health vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong Province had a distinct spatial distribution, with higher levels in northern inland regions than that in the southern coastal regions
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