The spatial diffusion of norovirus epidemics over three seasons in Tokyo.

Abstract

We studied the spatial trend of norovirus (NoV) epidemics using sentinel gastroenteritis surveillance data for patients aged <15 years (n = 140) in the Tokyo area for the 2006-2007 to 2008-2009 seasons utilizing the kriging method of geographical information system (GIS). This is the first study of the spreading pattern of NoV epidemics using sentinel surveillance data. Correlations of sentinel cases between the seasons and with demographic data were examined to identify the trend and related factors. A similar pattern of diffusion was observed over the seasons, and its mean correlation between seasons was significantly high. A higher number of cases were found in the peripheral area, which surrounds the most populated central area, and showed a correlation with the ratio of the children population (r = 0·321, P < 0·01) and the ratio of residents in larger families (r = 0·263, P < 0·01). While NoV susceptibility remained, the results suggest a transmission route in the local community as a possible epidemic factor. Prevention with focus on the peripheral area is desirable.