The spatial association between environmental pollution and long-term cancer mortality in Italy

Abstract

Tumours are nowadays the second world‑leading cause of death after cardiovascular diseases. During the last decades of cancer research, lifestyle and random/genetic factors have been blamed for cancer mortality, with obesity, sedentary habits, alcoholism, and smoking contributing as supposed major causes. However, there is an emerging consensus that environmental pollution should be considered one of the main triggers. Unfortunately, all this preliminary scientific evidence has not always been followed by governments and institutions, which still fail to pursue research on cancer's environmental connections. In this unprecedented national-scale detailed study, we analyzed the links between cancer mortality, socio-economic factors, and sources of environmental pollution in Italy, both at wider regional and finer provincial scales, with an artificial intelligence approach. Overall, we found that cancer mortality does not have a random or spatial distribution and exceeds the national average mainly when environmental pollution is also higher, despite healthier lifestyle habits. Our machine learning analysis of 35 environmental sources of pollution showed that air quality ranks first for importance concerning the average cancer mortality rate, followed by sites to be reclaimed, urban areas, and motor vehicle density. Moreover, other environmental sources of pollution proved to be relevant for the mortality of some specific cancer types. Given these alarming results, we call for a rearrangement of the priority of cancer research and care that sees the reduction and prevention of environmental contamination as a priority action to put in place in the tough struggle against cancer.