The sparse dynamic factor model: a regularised quasi-maximum likelihood approach

Abstract

The concepts of sparsity, and regularised estimation, have proven useful in many high-dimensional statistical applications. Dynamic factor models (DFMs) provide a parsimonious approach to modelling high-dimensional time series, however, it is often hard to interpret the meaning of the latent factors. This paper formally introduces a class of sparse DFMs whereby the loading matrices are constrained to have few non-zero entries, thus increasing interpretability of factors. We present a regularised M-estimator for the model parameters, and construct an efficient expectation maximisation algorithm to enable estimation. Synthetic experiments demonstrate consistency in terms of estimating the loading structure, and superior predictive performance where a low-rank factor structure may be appropriate. The utility of the method is further illustrated in an application forecasting electricity consumption across a large set of smart meters.