The Sower’s Way: A Strategy to Attain the Energy Transition

Abstract

In order to face resource depletion and climate change, society needs to move as quickly as possible to a renewable supply. Here, we argue that transition can be seen as a process similar to challenge faced by ancient farmers who had to save some of their harvest as for next harvest. In present case, during initial phase of transition, we need to save and invest part of produced by fossil fuels in order to build their own replacement in form of renewable plants. This strategy is called here the Sower's Way. The needs for transition can be quantified in terms of energy return for invested (EROI or EROEI) in order to estimate amount of seed that's necessary to invest before either fossil fuels become too expensive to be profitably extracted or temperature rise caused by greenhouse gases exceed safe limits, as they are understood today. Taking into account that it is necessary to maintain a minimum level of supply for a growing human population and for improving living standards of people living in poor countries, calculations indicate that a considerable increase in investments in renewable is necessary, and that it is necessary to start as soon as possible.