The South China Sea Dispute: A Reflection of Southeast Asia’s Economic and Strategic Dilemmas (2009-2018)

Abstract

The asymmetric distribution of power in the Asian maritime region is favoring China, increasing theapprehension of its neighbors that, faced with their evident vulnerability, fear about Beijing’s intentions. In this context, the balance of power maintains the status quo and limits China’s behavior against other coastal countries. Given the disparity of military and economic power between Southeast Asia and China, this balance can only be achieved with the intervention of an extra-regional power, the United States. The renewed American participation as a guarantor of regional security has created new bonds of strategic dependence for Southeast Asia, which in turn have economies that mainly rely on China. The South China Sea conflict is then posing two dilemmas for the region: China’s increasing economic leverage and Washington’s reactive and challenging Indo-Pacific policy, which might make a stalemate in the maritime conflict possible.