THE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION OF 2014: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT

Abstract

1. Introduction The outcome of the 7 May 2014 general elections in South Africa would seem to indicate, at first glance, that the business of democracy is continuing as usual. As Table 1 suggests, the African National Congress (ANC) may have obtained its lowest ever share of the vote, yet it obtained a result that was in many ways remarkable given its 20 years in power. Indeed, far from choosing to turn the rascals out, the electorate returned them with a resounding 62 per cent of the poll, only marginally less than in 1994. Further, it re-elected the ANC in eight out of the nine provinces (it having always previously won outright in seven or more). Correspondingly, the Democratic Alliance (DA) continued its steady rise in the polls, defying oft-made predictions that it in 2009 it was approaching its 'racial ceiling' (that is, that while able to aggregate the votes of racial minorities, it is unable to attract the votes of black Africans). Thirdly, while much hype has accompanied the birth of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the latter's securing of over six per cent of the votes--while highly creditable for a party formed only months before the election--may define it as a new 'third' party along the lines of the United Democratic Movement (UDM) in 1999 and the Congress of the People (Cope) in 2009. As with the EFF, both of these were essentially breakaways from the ANC, and both proved unable to maintain their share of the vote after a reasonable first showing. This points to a fourth dimension of election 2014--the continuing squeeze of the smaller parties, and the seeming drift towards a de facto two-party system, within the context of ANC party dominance (Southall 2014). ANC intellectual Pallo Jordan (2014) has compared the result of the 2014 election with that of 1994, and concluded that South Africa is coming to resemble a 'normal' democracy, with the DA having taken the place of the New National Party--NNP (and drawing its votes from the same electoral basis). Such a 'normal' democracy does not, self-evidently, exclude the representation of parties other than the big two, yet it manages to severely constrain their electoral territory. This and other tendencies are illustrated by Table 1: There is much to be said for the 'business as usual' perspective on the 2014 elections. Nonetheless, it is arguable that if we dig beneath the surface, then the outcome also points to undercurrents that are likely to challenge the character of South African democracy. In what follows below, I suggest: --first, that while continuing to remain solid overall, the foundations of the ANC's vote are beginning to crumble; --second, that the DA gives every indication that it will continue to rise in the polls; --third, that even if the EFF proves no more able than the UDM and Cope to sustain a significant political presence, its appearance suggests a new dimension to 'third' party politics. 2. The ANC: Defying expectations--but for how long? The ANC entered the election against the background of opinion polls that suggested that it might be hauled back to just over 50 per cent of the vote. Widespread labour disputes, highlighted by the tragedy of Marikana (when police killed 44 striking mineworkers) and the long running strike on the platinum mines, combined with other depressing news to contribute to declining confidence in the economy. The death of Nelson Mandela in December 2013 symbolised for many the end of an era, reinforcing narratives that the ANC had lost its idealism, and had become the vehicle of a political class out of touch with its historic constituency amongst, notably, the poor. Indeed, a continuing high level of popular protests among communities around the country highlighted deep-seated discontent with government performance on the ground. Meanwhile, the coalition which had elevated Jacob Zuma to the presidency had begun to dissolve, and the President himself, a major asset in the elections of 2009, had become a major electoral liability, with numerous allegations that he had used state office to benefit his family and those around him at public expense. …