The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas

Abstract

Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach.