Abstract
In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study, has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology of stratification and intergenerational mobility.
Highlights
In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings
Because the Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistic is clearly lower in the Education Level and Field of Study (EducFoS) model compared to the model using traditional educational level (i.e., 14,692 versus 14,582), the model incorporating the field of study is statistically preferable in terms of predicting long-term earnings
This study investigated the predictive power of a set of cross-sectional predictors on 20-year cumulative long-term earnings using data that link national survey data in 1990 (SIPP) with longitudinal W-2 earnings records
Summary
In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. Despite being critically important for a variety of socioeconomic outcomes, long-term earnings have not been extensively studied in prior studies. Sociological studies often use various cross-sectional indicators on the presumption that they shed light on an individual’s long-term socioeconomic circumstances. Despite its theoretical importance for a wide range of sociological studies, the widespread assumption that occupation is the best proxy for long-term earnings has surprisingly been subjected to very little empirical validation
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
