The SORG nomogram accurately predicts 3- and 12-months survival for operable spine metastatic disease: External validation.

Abstract

Externally validate the SORG12 nomogram and SORG classic algorithm at estimating survival in patients with spine metastatic disease, and compare predictive accuracy with other survival algorithms. We received data from 100 patients who had surgery for spine metastatic disease at an external institution. Algorithms were accurate if the Area Under Curve (AUC) was >0.70, and we used Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare predictive accuracy with other algorithms. The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3-months (AUC = 0.74) and 12-months survival (AUC = 0.78); it did not accurately estimate 1-month survival (AUC = 0.65). There was no difference in 1-month survival accuracy between the SORG nomogram and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.162). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 3-months survival, compared with the Tokuhashi score and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.009). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 12-months survival, compared with the Tomita score, Ghori score, Bauer modified score, Tokuhashi score, and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.033). The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3- and 12-months survival for operable spine metastatic disease, and is therefore, useful in clinical practice.